3 reasons Barack Obama lost new hampshire

Lastnight I was very with disappointed. Barack Obama lost the New Hampshire primary to his rival Senator Hillary Clinton. I was expecting Obama to win tonight in flying colors. And I ask the question how could so many pollsters and pundits be sooo wrong. 

CNN, MSBC, FOX news, Washington post and the noise in cyberspace……. They were all wrong, dead wrong. After the Obama Win in Iowa,  pollsters with their fancy graphics and pretty charts, using their big words and looking all knowing and intellectual, telling us how much of a “bounce” Obama got from his Iowa win. He was leading by 9 points they said,  some said double digits. 

What was funny to me was how fox news had the audacity to boast that they were the closest predicting a 4 point win for Barrack Obama. 

I promised my self that I would not listen to polls and pundits again after seeing them being wrong before. But then they get a few right and I start listening again and they disappoint me again. It’s like a dirty trick. In the words of Hillary Clinton “false hope”. I have been disappointed for the last time, I hope. 

Last evening the news network declared John McCain (republican) the winner very early in the in counting. As I watched the democrat numbers tally on my television it was clear that Hillary Clinton was winning and Barrack Obama was losing. They didn’t want to call the primary for Clinton, in their words “too close to call”. What a pound of bullshit. They were just delaying the fact that they were wrong. They were in denial and could not admit it that all their exit polls and analysis were simply wrong. As the evening progressed Clinton’s lead grew.

A comfortable win for Barrack Obama?, I think not. My disappointment is plenty and I have given the elite media a fair share. Now I will split the rest among the candidates. 

Barack Obama, I too am “inspired” and full of “hope” that you would solidify your chance to become America’s first black president. 

What happened?. I saw Hillary Clinton dominate the news on the eve of the primary. The day before the primary she did the now famous clip of her getting emotional. She worked hard and like her husband is now crowned the “comeback kid”. Obama just didn’t fight in the final days before the elections. His presents in the media were not strong. I think they got a little over confident. 

I have always admired and respected the Clintons. However for the past couple of days I am becoming weary of the Clintons. A commentator made a joke recently after Obama  now fake “bounce” after the Iowa caucus that he better watch his back and knees because the Clintons are known for being very vicious. Days leading up to the New Hampshire primary Bill Clinton himself started to criticize the media for supposable being soft with the questions to Obama. I will admit this is very true, but what about the fact that Hillary Clinton has literally kept the media at arms length and only now is giving interviews after she lost the Iowa caucus. The Clintons are now attacking Obama’s message of hope. Hillary Clinton calling it “false hope”. Bill Clinton calling Obama’s message a “fairy tale”. There have even been rumors that there are plans to create a sort of “swift boat” group whose goal would be to destroy Obama’s image. After hearing all of this I don’t see how people can vote for Hilary Clinton if she becomes the nominee. 

I think the tears shed by Hillary Clinton on the eve of the New Hampshire primary is fake. (see it here). What most people in the media and youtube left out is the sudden switch from tears to attack on her opponents in the same clip. We have seen how many times she tries to reinvent her self when the polls trend against her. Clinton is now the champion warrior against special interest when she has taken more money from them than any other candidate. All of a sudden the Clinton camp is lush with signs screaming “change”. A stolen theme from Obama. The back drop of Clinton’s rallies are starting to look like Obama’s with young people and the vibrant cheers. 

My blog is starting to sound like I am an ultra conservative right wing nut. The truth is personally I have always preferred the democrats, but more and more I am disappointed in them. In the last election America did vote for change giving them a slim majority. Slim but a majority none the less. What change have they done with that majority? They fail to impeach Bush and Cheney and continue to fund the war. I have to give the republicans credit for back bone. They would never allow any democratic president to do the things Bush and Cheney has done without drawing them through fire, look at what they did to Bill Clinton for a very personal matter. I am starting to admire their low tax, pro life, death penalty stance even if they are hypocrites. They have passion and soul and most importantly backbone.

I have been scratching my head and searching for reasons Barack Obama lost the New Hamphire primary. I came up with this list which is not written in stone. These are just my own speculations and guesses. The first on the list is the: 

  1. Bradley effect- This is basically white voters lying to pollsters about who they will be voting for when a black candidate is running. They tell pollsters they will vote for the black candidate but when they actually cast their ballots vote for the other candidate. The main characteristic is obviously race. I heard the pundits mention this phenomenon and researched it. I was surprise to find out this was a well known fact in polling based on pass elections yet it seems none of the pollsters took this into consideration or even mention it until after the fact. (Read more here)
  1. Clinton tears.- On the eve of the election Clinton shed the now famous tears claiming” I really don’t want to see us fall behind”. This clip was very popular on all the major networks, on youtube, on the blogs. Whether you think they this was fake or real it gave hr high visibility and may have helped her especially among women voters.(see video)
  2. The ABC/Facebook debates- Clinton was especially aggressive in the debates while Barack was as always more laid back. We continue to see the so called all boys club Obama and Edwards as one moderator put it “double team” on Clinton. This might have looked bad to voters and as I said before her aggressive defense of her record and plans might have helped some what.
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~ by RB on January 10, 2008.

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